Wednesday, March 15, 2006


Love this picture of the Wizard Of Westwood...still ridiculous that he won 10 titles...

Here’s how I think everything will play out:

Atlanta Region

1st Round

1. Duke over 16. Southern…duh.

8. George Washington over 9. UNC-Wilmington…GW PF Pops Mesah-Bonsu is healthy.

12. Texas A&M over 5. Syracuse…Gerry McNamara is actually guarded in this game.

4. LSU over 13. Iona…LSU is too big and too strong, although Rucker Park Legend Steve
Burtt Jr. still goes for 40 points in the loss.

11. S. Illinois over 6. West Virginia…best game of the bracket, but Sulakis can defend and the Mountaineers can’t.

3. Iowa over 14. Northwestern St…Iowa is just plain more talented, but this one still makes me nervous…Iowa has a reputation for sucking in the tournament and Steve Alford has not been much of a tournament coach.

7. Cal over 10. NC State…Cal PF Leon “Show” Powe is too tough, but the hybrid Princeton offence for NC State will make this game close.

2. Texas over 15. Penn…hey Quakers, you’re not in the Ivy League anymore.

2nd Round

1. Duke over 8. George Washington…duh…although closer than the last duh.

4. LSU over 12. Texas A & M…too big, too strong, too athletic.

11.Southern Illinois over 3. Iowa…Salukis can D it up and Iowa is soft as tissue paper.

2. Texas over 7. Cal…Texas PG Daniel Gibson and SF PJ Tucker are too much for the Bears.

3rd Round – Sweet 16

1. Duke over 4. LSU…I will regret this, I know…but I just think Coach K will figure out a way to combat LSU’s superior size and athleticism…even though LSU is the better team on paper.

2. Texas over 11. Southern Illinois…Bloom is off the rose for the Salukis who can’t handle Texas’ size, especially PF Brad Buckman and C (and probable 1st overall pick in the NBA draft) LaMarcus Aldrige…

4th Round – Elite 8

2. Texas over 1. Duke…Yes it’s a feeling…Duke C Shelden Williams can’t guard both Buckman and Aldridge which means Texas has an advantage inside…also, UT PG Gibson is a superior player to Duke PG’s Greg Paulus and Sean Dockery…Tucker has to contain SG JJ Redick, but at the other end Redick simply can’t handle Tucker going to the basket…Texas will have learned from the blowout loss to Duke earlier in the year…plus I hate Duke so there.

Oakland Region

1st Round

1. Memphis over 16. Oral Roberts…this will be close than you think with all world scorer Caleb Green going for 40 in a too close for comfort loss…

8. Arkansas over 9. Bucknell…OK so Bucknell beat Kansas…that was last year. Big upset, blah blah blah…Get over it.

5. Pitt over 12. Kent St…Panthers are too big and too tough…although Pitt PG Karl Krauser lays the occasional egg…

4. Kansas over 13 Bradley…in a drilling…Kansas is the hottest team in the tourney, and 7 foot C Patrick O’Bryant is very overrated…

11. San Diego State over 6. Indiana…Aztecs’ SG Brandon Heath is a terrific scorer, PF Marcus slaughter is the real deal and SDS is coached by Steve Fisher (20-7 all time in the tourney!!!) who led Michigan to the 1989 NCAA title…besides, Indiana’s coach Mike Davis has already resigned effective and the end of the season and half his team doesn’t even like him…

3. Gonzaga over 14. Xavier…close but Zags are too talented.

10. Alabama over 7. Marquette…oh boy…this is a very, very, very close call…Alabama is one of those battle-tested teams that is ready for anything, while Marquette was supposed to be a year away and might not be ready…although Marquette PF Steve Nowak is the best free throw shooter in the world right now having made 72-74 this year. In the end I just trust Bama PG Ronald Steel and C Jermario Davidson to step up…but admittedly this matchup makes me reach for the Maalox.

2. UCLA over 15. Belmont…not close…not even a little…

2nd Round

1. Memphis over 8. Arkansas…too many athletes for Memphis, who will overwhelm Arkansas in the 2nd half with their depth.

4. Kansas over 5. Pitt…the Brandon Rush show as the Jayhawks’ SG continues to see his draft stock rise…Pitt is big and tough, but Kansas is just too quick and to hot right now.

3. Gonzaga over 11. San Diego State…by 1 in overtime…game of the tourney.

2. UCLA over 10. Alabama…Alabama has no answer for Bruins’ SG Aaron Affalo.

3rd Round – Sweet 16

4. Kansas over 1. Memphis…Kansas is my hot team and Memphis built its record on tomato cans anyway…

2. UCLA over 3. Gonzaga…Gonzaga can score but cannot defend and finds themselves unable to contain the multiple weapons of UCLA.

4th Round – Elite 8

2. UCLA over 4. Kansas…oh boy…very entertaining game, but the young fellas from Kansas get tight when they wake up and realize that they’re a game away from the final four. The matchups are intriguing with Rush vs. Affalo at the SG and Robinson vs. Farmar at the PG…in the end UCLA is a little more relaxed, a little closer to home, and a little more mature…call it a 3 point win.

Washington Region

1st Round

1. UConn over 16. Albany…by 50 points.

9. UAB over 8. Kentucky…Tubby is too distracted about coaching the NBA’s Charlotte Bobcats next year…plus UAB PG Squeaky Johnson will give UK PG Patrick Sparks fits…UAB plays the old Arkansas “40 minutes of Hell” defence pressing on every possession and rotating athletes in and out…

5. Washington over 12. Utah St…in a walk because Huskies PG Brandon Roy is exponentially better than anyone on the Aggies roster AND Utah St. is 1-11 in the tourney all time…which, well…sucks.

4. Illinois over 13. Air Force…very close game in the 50’s due to Air Force running the ball-control Princeton offence…this is a trendy upset pick, but Illini are just too talented and Air Force haven’t beaten anyone in the top 50 this year.

6. Michigan State over 11. George Mason…this will be a dunk-fest with Spartans guards Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager providing numerous highlights.

3. North Carolina over 14. Murray State…Yawn…

7. Wichita State over 10. Seton Hall…too bad because I think Seton Hall coach Louis Orr, who is getting screwed by the university’s administration contractually, is a fantastic coach…however, the Shockers are for real with balanced scoring (4 players in double figures) and a potent big man in 6’10” C Paul Miller, while the Pirates can’t shoot, making only 41.8% from the floor as a team.

2. Tennessee over 15. Winthrop…look, if there is going to be a 15 seed beat a 2 it will be here, because Tennessee is tired, rebounds poorly and have lost three of the last four…but Winthrop will have to be perfect and 2’s have so rarely beaten 15’sthat predicting it is folly…

2nd Round

1. UConn over 9. UAB…close until about 5 minutes left when superior talent overwhelms UAB…

5. Washington over 4. Illinois…Dee Brown goes cold and Brandon Roy gets hot…a close game but the Huskies prevail.

6. Michigan State over 3. North Carolina…game of the bracket here…UNC young player’s tighten up a game away from the sweet 16…again Spartans guards Brown and Ager are too much got UNC on the wing and Spartans senior C Paul Davis gets the better of UNC freshman PF Tyler Hansborough…if Hansborough stays UNC will be very dangerous next year.

2. Tennesee over 7. Wichita State…because Vols coach Bruce Pearl sweats through his suit (ew…gross) and SG Chris Lofton shoots the lights out…close 1 point win in OT.

3rd Round – Sweet 16

1. UConn over 5. Washington…Connecticut bigs Josh Boone and Hilton Armstrong are too much for Washington to handle in this all-Huskies matchup.

6. Michigan State over 2. Tennessee…Vols are tired and cannot matchup with the Spartans athletes…this will be a blowout.

4th Round – Elite 8

1. UConn over 6. Michigan State…Maybe the game of the year…fantastic matchups with Huskies SF Rudy Gay against Spartans SF Shannon Brown and Huskies SG Denham Brown against Spartans SG Maurice Ager, and Huskies C Hilton Armstrong against Spartans C Paul Davis…in the end, the difference will be that UConn PG Marcus Williams is just plain better than Spartans PG Drew Nietzel, UConn PF Josh Boone should be able to score on Spartans PF (and football player) Matt Trannon, and most tellingly UConn’s depth with Rashad Anderson scoring 13.5 PPG off the bench will be too much for Michigan State to handle.

Minneapolis Region

1st Round

1. Villanova over 16. Monmouth…a shellacking as it were.

8. Arizona over 9. Wisconsin…Badger’s SG Alando Tucker will score, but Arizona is too deep…although could go the other way if Hassan Adams is drunk.

5. Nevada over 12 Montana…Repeat after me: Nick Fazekas…Nick Fazekas…Nick Fazekas.

4. Boston College over 13. Pacific…very nervous pick as I think Boston College’s toughness is overstated in that they can’t defend anyone and Pacific can score.

11. Wisconsin-Milwaukee over 6. Oklahoma…ummm…Sooners are the best offensive rebounding club in the NCAA, but the Panthers are top 10 in defensive rebounding…Sooners struggle to score sometimes, while the Panthers have a terrific three player scoring combo in SG Boo Davis (16.1 PPG) and forwards Joah Tucker (16.5 PPG) and Adrian Tigert (12.9 PPG)…this is a gutsy call, but as a 1 game matchup, the Sooners are slower, score less and less easily, and rely too much on getting their own misses.

3. Florida over 14. South Alabama…not even close…

7. Georgetown over 10. Northern Iowa…I know NI is the trendy pick, but they’ve lost 5 of their last 7 in a weak conference, while the Hoyas have beaten Duke, Pitt and Marquette this year…plus the Hoyas run the Princeton offence to perfection and I’ve already dealt out losses to the other two Princeton offence teams (NC State and Air Force).

2. Ohio State over 15. Davidson…this will be close and nerve-racking at the half and then boom goes the dynamite in the 2nd half…

2nd Round

1. Villanova over 8. Arizona…Villanova will run circles around Arizona…

5. Nevada over 4. Boston College…BC’s toughness vs. Nevada’s skill…close game, but the Wolfpack will win with its superior shooting touch and better defence.

3. Florida over 11. Wisconsin-Milwaukee…Florida C Joakim Noah too much for the Panthers inside…

7. Georgetown over 2. Ohio State…I’m sorry, but I cannot explain why I like this pick…I just don’t believe in Ohio State…

3rd Round – Sweet 16

1. Villanova over 5. Nevada…the Wildcats guards rebound well swarm on defence and will have to in order to contain Nevada’s size…this will be a squeaker…

3. Florida over 7. Georgetown…Florida will run just enough to offset the tempo that the Hoyas will try to establish.

4th Round – Elite 8

1. Villanova over 3. Florida…although Noah could be the X factor again, I expect the Wildcat guards to be too much for Florida to handle…plus Villanova will not turn the ball over very much which will keep Florida from running and getting out on the break…

Final Four

2. Texas over 2. UCLA…in the end the only thing that matters will be that Longhorn’s PF LaMarcus Aldrige has no equal on the UCLA roster…UT PG Gibson and UCLA PG Farmar are a wash, as are UT SF Tucker and UCLA SG Afflalo…these two teams play similar styles in that they both run opportunistically and work well in their halfcourt sets…UCLA is the better defensive team and slightly more athletic…I think the difference is that UT is the nations 2nd best rebounding team and will simply get more possessions as a result.

1. UConn over 1. Villanova…Villanova finally falls prey to a team that is their equal moving the ball and is too big, too strong and too deep…Wildcats will tire in this game as UConn pounds them inside and shuttles in reserves to defend the guards…Villanova will have no answer for the overwhelming size of UConn inside and will start missing those crucial three pointers in the second half as they begin to tire…

NCAA Championship Final

1. UConn over 2. Texas…Fantastic matchup of two very similar teams…big, athletic, good rebounders, decent defensively…the individual matchups are very close…at PG UConn’s Marcus Williams is a better player than UT’s Kenton Paulino…at SG UT’s Daniel Gibson is a better scorer while UConn’s Denham Brown is a better defender and rebounder and is the hotter player coming into the tournament…at SF UConn’s Rudy Gay is bigger, more athletic and abetter defender and rebounder, but not as tough and relentless as UT’s PJ Tucker…at the PF spot UConn’s Josh Boone is superior in every way but toughness to UT’s Brad Buckman…at the C spot UConn’s Hilton Armstrong is the better defender but not nearly the scorer, rebounder and athlete that UT C LaMarcus Aldrige is…in other words these teams are pretty even…except in 2 areas: coaching and bench. Rick Barnes is a terrific coach, but Jim Calhoun is a 2 time NCAA champion whose in the Hall of Fame: advantage UConn…plus the UConn bench features Rashad Anderson in the Vinnie Johnson Microwave role and forward Jeff Adrien and PG Craig Autrie who’d be starters on a lot of Division 1 teams, while Texas does not have similar depth…in the end, UConn becomes the reigning basketball dynasty with their 3rd title since 1999…

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