Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Milk Carton: Manu Ginobili…this dude is lost…

My favourite part of the Mavs 113-91 victory over San Antonio last night? The sound of 20,000 chanting: "JAVIE SUCKS." Awesome…although the Mavs were just faster and more aggressive last night, so Spurs fans should stop whining about the refs and look at why they lost…Duncan and nothing else was the offence for the Spurs as the Big fundamental went for28 points on 8-of-10 from the field and 12 of 14 from the line with 9 boards, 3 assists and 4 blocks… great numbers considering the Mavs sent two and sometimes three defenders at him all night…as for the Mavs, they were too fast and too athletic with SF Josh Howard leading the team with 27 points, while Dirk Nowitzki scored 21, Devin Harris scored 20, Stackhouse had 19 (killing Brent Barry all night) and Jason Terry, playing SG had 11…of yeah, Devin Harris played…a lot…Avery Johnson did a terrific job looking at Game 1 tape and seeing that Adrian Griffin as a starter was not going to work because he can’t score…"We're at our best when we're getting a lot of points in the paint, getting drives to the basket," said Harris, who scored a career-high 22 against San Antonio in November. Oh and cue the Ref whining from Tim Duncan: "The whistle was going crazy left and right," he said of the second quarter.” Whatever…crybaby…Did you see David Robinson sittign in a front row seat wearing a Ginobili jersey? Have you ever seen this before? Imagine seeing Michale Jordan in a Ben Gordon Jersey at courtside…love the Admiral, a star athlete completely devoid of pretension…

RJ is out: New Jersey forward Richard Jefferson is listed as doubtful for Wednesday's Game 2 of the Nets' Eastern Conference semifinal series with the Miami Heat because of a bone bruise in his right ankle.

Rick Adelman was fired by the Sacramento Kings yesterday despite:

a) Leading the club to eight consecutive playoff appearances as the most successful coach in franchise history.
b) Adelman’s 752 career victories are the fourth-most among active NBA coaches Adelman is 752-481 in 16 seasons as an NBA coach
c) During his eight seasons in Sacramento, he won 395 games.
d) He led them to the playoffs every year and was within one Robert Horry miracle shot of reaching the Finals in 2002

Rick Adelman's departure isn't a too much of a surprise, just a shame….The Kings declined to give him a contract extension last season, even contacting Phil Jackson during this time, basically lame-ducking Adelman for the year…Don Nelson, Byron Scott, Terry Porter and San Antonio Spurs assistant coach P.J. Carlesimo are considered to be the front-runners…

Even though LeBronJames scored 23 of his 30 points in the second half, Rasheed Wallace had 29 points and Tayshaun Prince added 20 as Detroit cruised to a 97-91 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night, giving them a 2-0 lead in their second-round series. Simply put, Detroit won because all five Pistons starters scored making it the 11th time over the last three years that Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Ben Wallace, Richard Hamilton and Chauncey Billups have each scored 10-or-more points in a playoff game….

1) Mike Kahn of Foxsports.com examines the soon to be exit of the Cavs:

LeBron and Co. don't have enough at Detroit

LeBron and the LeBronettes have a lot to learn and apparently the Detroit Pistons are willing mentors. Following an embarrassing 113-86 loss in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals, the LeBronettes, er, the Cleveland Cavaliers had jitters in Game 2 Tuesday night as well, only this time they pieced together a furious fourth quarter comeback before falling 97-91 to the two-time defending Eastern Conference champions. The Pistons built a 22-point lead in the middle of Game 2, and still led by 20 nearly a minute into the fourth quarter before the Cavs went on an 18-7 burst to suddenly make it an interesting battle down the stretch. Oh, it didn't appear they actually had the goods to win the game in the Palace of Auburn Hills ... but they did prove to the Pistons — and perhaps more importantly to themselves — the intimidation factor was beginning to fade. The struggling Cavs actually sank 10-of-18 shots from the field in the fourth quarter, as precocious LeBron James returned to the superlative form of pre-Game 1 with 30 points, 14 rebounds and seven assists — including 23 points six assists and 12 rebounds in the second half. Drew Gooden also bounced back from a horrible Game 1 with 17 points and eight rebounds, but it still couldn't match the always balanced and consistent Pistons. They didn't sink 14 of their first 16 shots from three-point range this time around as they did in Game 1, but they still were 10-of-25 and Rasheed Wallace was brilliant with 29 points, nine rebounds and two blocks ... highlighted by five-of-eight treys. Per usual, he was not alone, as all five starters were in double-figures, even Ben Wallace with 10 points to go along with his requisite 15 boards. The terrific combo of Chauncey Billups (15 points, seven assists), Rip Hamilton (17 points) and Tayshaun Prince (20 points) all were significant in opening up the big lead. But when it came down to the difference, it clearly was all about the free throw line, as the Pistons sank nine more free throws (31-of-42) than the Cavaliers (15-of-22) even attempted. Good thing, because the Cavs crushed them on the boards 51-39, and actually shot a higher percentage from the field (.443-.412). Then again, all the numbers that we can manipulate to dance, sing and write concertos don't make a bit of difference if one team just knows it is superior to another team. The same goes if deep down the other team knows it is inferior to the other guys. The reality is nobody expects the Cavs to win more than a game in this series. If they do, it's only because the Pistons let down for an entire game, just as they did in the fourth quarter Tuesday night. Sure, LeBron and the LeBronettes made a big statement with their fourth quarter burst. And the next two games are in the Q, which may find its roof flying into Lake Erie if the crowd gets into it enough. Then maybe, just maybe, they can steal a game.
If not, this is all about learning how to deal with it all next time around. Until then, just watch 'em grow ... sometimes that's just as much fun.

The stud - Dallas forward Josh Howard continues to play brilliant all-around ball, scoring 27 points and grabbing nine rebounds in the Mavs' 113-91 domination of the San Antonio Spurs Tuesday night.

The dud - Cavs guard Flip Murray, so instrumental in their Game 6 win over Washington, is 0-for-11 in the two games against the Pistons thus far with five free throws to show for 48 minutes.

The quote - "Everything tonight had to do with the way the Mavs played ... without a doubt," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said after his team's startling 113-91 loss to the Mavericks.

This and that - Not surprisingly, the Kings announced they would not re-sign lame duck coach Rick Adelman, coming off a 44-38 season and a loss in six games to the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs. Nonetheless, it was under Adelman that the Kings made an unprecedented run of eight consecutive playoff appearances (34-35), and a 395-229 regular season mark — including an average of 52.5 wins a season after his first year that was the 50-game, lockout shortened season. Adelman, who turns 60 in June, has a career record of 752-481 and 70-68 in the postseason — both the fourth most wins and fourth best winning percentage among active coaches. He was put in a horrible position last summer of finding out publicly that the Maloof brothers — owners of the Kings — were putting out feelers for Phil Jackson before he agreed to return to the Lakers. Making matters worse, team president Geoff Petrie has been not only his boss, but his close friend and confidant since they were teammates with the Blazers in the early 1970s. Petrie left the Trail Blazers as general manager in 1994 because Adelman was unceremoniously fired and replaced by P.J. Carlesimo. For a couple of months now, deposed Mavericks coach Don Nelson has been linked to the Kings job. NBA commissioner David Stern has made it known the Board of Governors will indeed look at changing the seeding system so we don't see a situation like we have now — the Spurs and the Mavs, the teams with the two best records in the West, meeting in the conference semifinals. The other quirk of the system had the Clippers, despite being the sixth seed, having a better record than the third-seeded Nuggets. ... Nets forward Richard Jefferson, who left Monday's 100-88 win over the Heat in the third quarter after he rolled his right ankle, had an MRI and it was negative regarding ligament damage. But the bruise leaves him doubtful for Wednesday's Game 2. ... Devin Harris started just four games for the Mavs before Tuesday night and missed 19 of the last 30 games with a badly strained quad, but was brilliant guarding the ever-elusive Tony Parker, who has been having leg problems of his own. Harris had a career playoff-high 20 points and held to 15. ... Orlando Magic forward Grant Hill is the recipient of the 2006 Magic Johnson Award for combining excellence on the floor and cooperation with the media — and by extension the fans. The award is by vote by the Pro Basketball Writers Association.

The statbook - Until the second quarter Tuesday night, the Pistons had held the Cavs to less than 20 points in 11 of the previous 21 quarters they had played. The Cavs then scored 20, 24 and 31 in the next three quarters before succumbing. ... Cavs guard Larry Hughes continues to struggle from the floor, making just 4-of-11 shots before fouling out and now has made 8-of-24 in the first two games. In the six games against the Wizards in the first round, he was 22-of-70, making him 30-of-94, a very sad .319 shooting percentage for the playoffs. ... Rasheed Wallace has made 7-of-10 from three-point range in the series, and is 18-of-32 during this post-season, a sizzling .563. ... What a statistical oddity that Richard Hamilton would score 17 points on 1-of-7 from the floor and 15-of-18 from the free throw line. ... The Pistons are 25-of-47 from 3-point range in the series. ... The Mavs won their first playoff game in San Antonio since May 27, 2003. ... To emphasize how the Mavs have grown accustomed to what the Spurs offer, Tim Duncan is averaging 29.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.0 blocks for the Spurs, and they are just a jump shot away from heading to Dallas down 0-2.

2) John Hollinger of ESPN.com has lost his mind:

Why Chris Paul is better than you think

Portland. Boston. Utah. Milwaukee. Atlanta. Charlotte. Toronto. All of them, and perhaps a few other teams, could have had Chris Paul in the 2005 draft. And with each passing game, the mistake those teams made became more and more obvious. Based on his rookie year, Paul was essentially the next Magic Johnson ... only better. Take a second to enjoy the season Chris Paul is having. "CP3" (not be confused with his pal R2-D2) almost single-handedly rejuvenated a reeling New Orleans/Oklahoma City team that was coming off an 18-64 season, had been forced to relocate just weeks before the season started and had traded its All-Star center in the offseason. Observers were stunned to see Paul's Hornets steadfastly cling to life in the Western Conference playoff race -- and the Hornets more than doubled last season's win total. As a result, Paul is going to win the Rookie of the Year award. Check that -- Paul is going to win unanimously, with a Jupiter-sized gap between him and whichever guy comes in second. (And if they gave out an award for having your jersey neatly tucked in at all times, he'd win that too.) Paul's Rookie of the Year status is well known, of course ... so why am I bringing it up now? Because I don't think most people realize what a remarkable season Paul put together. At first glance, most folks think of his year as good, yes, but not great ... and certainly not historic. One reason is that his traditional stats don't jump off the page -- 16.1 points, 7.9 assists and 5.1 rebounds. That was sure as heck better than any other rookie this year, but didn't exactly evoke visions of Bird and Magic taking the league by storm. And he shot only 43.0 percent from the floor and 28.2 percent on 3-pointers, so one might think he wasn't terribly efficient, either. But Paul was devastating in other ways. For starters, he took a ton of free throws. Paul averaged six free throws per game, or about one for every two field goal attempts -- a ridiculously high rate for a point guard. Thus, even without a good shooting percentage or many 3-pointers, his true shooting percentage was 54.6 percent -- placing him 10th among point guards. Placing 10th doesn't sound overly impressive until you start going down the line and realizing Paul was in the upper tier of his position in every category. Of the possessions he used, 31.4 percent ended with an assist -- that put him 9th. He turned it over on just 9.4 percent of the possessions he used -- that was 11th best. And he was an obscenely good rebounder, ranking second only to Jason Kidd among point guards in rebound rate. Add it all up and Paul's player efficiency rating of 22.14 was quite impressive. It ranked fifth overall at the point position, and it was that low only because the position was unusually strong this year. Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, Gilbert Arenas and Allen Iverson were the point guards ahead of him, and all four had career years in terms of PER. Leaguewide, Paul's mark ranked 20th -- ahead of the PERs of Carmelo Anthony and Vince Carter. But the impact of Paul's season doesn't really settle in until you compare him with other rookie guards. Off the top of your head, you might think it's fairly common for a rookie point guard to come in and play roughly as well as Paul has. Guess again. Most rookie point guards, even the ones who turn out to be total studs, struggle mightily. Such greats as John Stockton, Gary Payton, Steve Nash, Mark Price, Gail Goodrich, Mo Cheeks and Tiny Archibald all had PERs below the league average as rookies. So for a guard such as Paul to come along and take over immediately is unusual. The same is almost as true for shooting guards. Only a rare few can come in and star immediately. Even the greats tend to do what Dwyane Wade and Clyde Drexler did -- have a rookie season during which they occasionally star and leave obvious hints of their enormous potential, but don't consistently put up All-Star numbers. As a result, Paul's rookie season stacks up well when compared with those of other rookie guards in NBA history. Very well. Shockingly well. Let's cut right to the chase. Here's a complete list of every guard in NBA history to post a better rookie PER than Paul's:

1. Oscar Robertson
2. Michael Jordan

Yes, that is the whole list. MJ and the Big O. In terms of PER, Paul was the best rookie guard in two decades and the best rookie point guard in 45 years. You were looking for some other names? Sorry, they don't stack up. Let's start with the one most of you will ask about: Magic. As a rookie, Earvin Johnson averaged 18.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists and shot 53.0 percent while leading the Lakers to a championship. You might think, then, that the Magic man was better than Paul as a rookie, but you'd have a tough time proving it. Despite Magic's having become synonymous with the triple-double, Paul's triple-double stats (points, rebounds, assists) as a rookie actually compare very well. Magic's scoring edge withers to almost nothing once you adjust for the difference in scoring between 1980 and 2006, and believe it or not, Paul has a much better assist ratio (percentage of possessions that end in an assist). The Magic man maintains an advantage in rebound rate, but it's much smaller than the disparity in per-game numbers would make you believe. So what's the difference between Paul and Magic? Turnovers. The Magic man was a turnover machine as a young player (he set a record in the Finals that year with 10 in a single game), coughing it up far more often than Paul did (15.1 percent of possessions for Magic to 9.4 percent for Paul). So essentially, Paul did nearly all the things Magic did as a rookie but with substantially fewer turnovers. No, Paul won't be able to play center in Game 6 of the Finals, but short of that, it's hard to make a case for Johnson as the superior rookie.

Top Rookie Seasons by Guards in NBA History (Ranked By PER)
PLAYER SEASON TEAM PTS/40 REB/40 AST/40 TS% PER
Oscar Robertson '60-61 Cincinnati 28.6 9.4 9.1 55.5 25.9*
Michael Jordan '84-85 Chicago 29.4 6.8 6.1 59.2 25.8
Chris Paul '05-06 NO/OC 17.9 5.7 8.7 54.6 22.1
Magic Johnson '79-80 Los Angeles 19.9 8.5 8.1 60.2 20.6
Vince Carter '98-99 Toronto 20.8 6.4 3.4 51.6 19.6
Calvin Murphy '70-71 San Diego 25.7 4.9 6.5 53.2 19.4*
Steve Francis '99-'00 Houston 20.0 5.9 7.3 54.3 18.4
Allen Iverson '96-97 Philadelphia 23.5 4.1 7.4 51.3 18.0
Rod Strickland '88-89 New York 21.2 4.7 9.4 53.9 18.0
Andre Miller '99-'00 Cleveland 17.5 5.4 9.1 51.7 17.9
* NBA didn't track individual turnovers before 1977-78; PER relies on estimate for turnovers.

And so it goes down the line. Johnson was actually the best rookie guard after Jordan and Robertson before Paul came along. The next two closest were Vince Carter and Calvin Murphy, but both have obvious shortcomings to Paul as a passer and Paul has a much better true shooting percentage than either. The comparisons get more one-sided as we move further down the list. Having done this exercise, we find ourselves pondering a much bigger question: How good can this guy be? If only two guards in the history of the league can match what he did as a rookie, does this destine Paul to become one of the best guards of all time? Unfortunately, that conclusion doesn't necessarily follow. Players improve at different rates for different reasons, and ironically, one factor that works against Paul is his low turnover rate. In general, players with a high turnover rate as young players tend to improve more in future seasons than their low-turnover counterparts. Even players who eventually became low-turnover guys, like Chauncey Billups, had high rates as rookies. However, another trend should strongly outweigh the one above: Most guards improve massively over the course of their first three pro seasons. If Paul follows anywhere close to that trend line, he's going to be the best point guard in basketball within a year or two. Additionally, it's not hard to see where the improvement might come. Paul's shooting percentages have substantial room for increase, and his form is good enough to suggest he'll find the range once he gets used to the pro 3-point line. Plus, Paul is only 20 years old, so he might develop further physically, too. So although he might not (or might) end up being the caliber of player the Big O and Jordan were, that's about all we can say about Paul's ceiling. He's already as good as nearly any other point guard in game today, and as he learns his craft and develops his jumper, he'll only get better. Not bad for a guy who, in one way or another, saw seven teams pass on him in the draft.

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