Thursday, June 22, 2006

Now ask yourself…are the Mavs World Champions if they have Steve Nash instead of Jason Terry at the point? The 2-time MVP or the guy who went all John Starks in Game 6? Look at the numbers:

Jason Terry 17.1 PPG, 3.8 APG, 2.0 RPG, 47% FG, 41%, 3pt. FG, 80% FT
Steve Nash 18.8 PPG, 10.5 APG, 4.2 RPG, 51.2% FG, 44% 3pt. FG, 92% FT

The numbers are overwhelming for Nash, but think about the Mavs inability to score or get to the basket in the 4th quarters of the last four games (losses) of the series…you think Dirk gets the ball in better scoring position with Nash looking for him? Yes…You think Nash goes 2-11 from three like Terry did? No…You think the Mavs have an easier time establishing the tempo and keeping the tempo in the 4th quarter with Nash, the best PG in the world? Yes…

So was not signing Nash smart in terms of the contract length? Yes, but if the Mavs had signed him, they’d be world champs right now…

1) Chad Ford of ESPN.com with a report on the trade talk pre-draft:

Trades might shake up draft, from top to bottom

With less than a week to go before the June 28 NBA Draft, very few teams are on solid footing. Not only are most teams very uncertain about who will be available when they make their pick, but there is a major factor that is simply impossible for them to calculate accurately -- the trades that most think are coming. Here's a take on the top few prospects from an NBA team executive drafting in the high lottery. "There are warts everywhere," he said. "Do you take a risk and go with upside or do you take a player who's going to be solid? Usually when you're drafting this high, you get a little of both. This year is different. I think there's one star, Adam Morrison. But he may not be the best player in the draft. I think this has led to all of the trade talk." This "trade talk" is what could, more than anything else, upset everyone's expectations about how the draft will play out. After all, when you don't even know which teams are making the picks, how can you figure out whom they're taking? To try to sort things out, Insider has its ear to the ground, listening for trade rumblings. Here's what we're hearing about potential deals affecting the draft:

Toronto Raptors - Since the regular season, two small trades have gone down in the NBA, both involving the Raptors. Toronto sent Rafael Araujo to the Jazz for Kris Humphries and Robert Whaley. Then, on Wednesday, they sent Eric Williams and Matt Bonner to the Spurs for Rasho Nesterovic. But just about everyone believes that another big trade is in the works, involving either the No. 1 pick or Charlie Villanueva. So far, a number of rumors have popped up, involving Jermaine O'Neal, Samuel Dalembert, Jamaal Magloire and Brevin Knight. So far, all of them have been bogus. GM Bryan Colangelo has, over the past few days, shot holes through all of the scenarios. O'Neal would hurt their cap flexibility. Dalembert is overpaid. Magloire isn't worth the No. 1 pick. Knight isn't enough to motivate a swap of the No. 1 pick for Charlotte's No. 3 pick.
Colangelo reiterated on Wednesday that it would have to be something "much bigger" to move the pick at this point. That probably shoots holes in some other trade scenarios currently out there. The most popular has the Portland Trail Blazers packaging No. 4 and No. 30 along with Travis Outlaw or one of their young point guards to get up to No. 1. The deal would allow the Raptors to pick up a few extra assets and still be in a position to take Andrea Bargnani at No. 4. However, the word is that the Raptors aren't interested and that the Blazers are unwilling to sweeten the pot. They want Adam Morrison badly but apparently won't mortgage the franchise for a guy who could very well be there when they pick at No. 4.
The Houston Rockets have also tried to move up to get the No. 1 pick, but just don't have the assets. Ditto for the Memphis Grizzlies. They'd be willing to offer just about anyone on their roster for No. 1 with the exception of Pau Gasol -- who is the only guy the Raptors would consider pulling the trigger on a trade for. At this point, it appears the Raptors are leaning toward keeping the pick. But they're probably not done trading. Look for them to work a sign-and-trade deal to move Mike James this summer.

Chicago Bulls - Things have been pretty quiet in Chicago. Almost too quiet. The Bulls have more moveable assets than anyone else in the NBA at the moment. They have two very desirable first-round picks (No. 2 and No. 16), lots of young players with tradeable contracts and a plenty of cap room this summer. So are they going to make a deal? A rumor floated last week had them talking with the Los Angeles Lakers about a deal that would send Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum to Chicago for Tyson Chandler and the No. 2 pick. On Wednesday, a source said that the Bulls may be considering trading the No. 2 pick and Chandler to the Phoenix Suns for Shawn Marion. With the pick, the Suns would select Tyrus Thomas. The move would help the Suns get the their salary cap situation under control and allow them to re-sign Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa next summer. More likely, the Bulls are keeping the pick and deciding between Thomas and Brandon Roy. A source in Chicago reiterated to Insider on Wednesday that they hadn't promised to draft Thomas and were still trying to decide which way to go.

Charlotte Bobcats - GM Bernie Bickerstaff has been active in trying to trade up or down in the draft. The recently rumored swap that would send Brevin Knight and the No. 3 pick to Toronto for Alvin Williams and the No. 1 was shot down by Colangelo on Wednesday. It's still unclear, however, what the Bobcats want to accomplish. With Michael Jordan in a decision-making role, will they dump their strategy of building slowly through the draft and opt for a more aggressive approach that brings in veterans? At this point, the Bobcats look more and more likely to stay at No. 3. They are zeroing in on Roy, who's likely to be available when they pick.

Portland Trail Blazers - The Blazers may be happy at No. 4, but they'd be happier if they could move up to No. 1. Adam Morrison is the top guy on their draft board not only because of his talent but also because of his popularity in Portland. The Blazers have created a huge gulf between the team and their fans, and drafting Morrison would definitely help bridge it. And their dream scenario is to find a way to get both Morrison and Brandon Roy. The Blazers have to do something to change their local image and their locker-room culture, and adding Morrison and/or Roy would be a huge step. The problem is that the Blazers appear unwilling to give up the two guys most teams are interested in, Martell Webster and Jarrett Jack. Instead they are hoping that a combination of a young player plus No. 4, No. 30 and/or No. 31 will be enough. They have been shopping Zach Randolph, Darius Miles and Theo Ratliff as well, and they're willing to move some of their other players as well. I'm not so sure any of that will help them get Toronto's No. 1 pick. Whatever interest the Raptors might have in Travis Outlaw and Sebastian Telfair does not appear to be strong enough for the Raptors to give up the No. 1 pick, even with the Blazers' picks in the deal. Look for the Blazers to get more suitors this summer when Joel Przybilla can be had via sign-and-trade.

Atlanta Hawks - Only the Raptors have more rumors swirling around them than the Hawks. The hottest talk is that they promised to pick Shelden Williams. But, if so, when? Was it with the No. 5 pick? Or did they know they were trading down and wanted to try to improve their chances to get him in the lottery? Or, is it another team that has promised Williams and is ready to move up to No. 5 to get him? One candidate might be the Philadelphia 76ers. The Hawks have interest in Allen Iverson and the Sixers have interest in moving him. Sixers GM Billy King is a big fan of Williams and needs a young player to eventually replace the aging Chris Webber. Would the No. 5 pick and Al Harrington (via sign-and-trade) be enough for the Sixers to part with Iverson? Another team could be the Seattle SuperSonics, who might be willing to offer Nick Collison and the No. 10 to Atlanta for the No. 5. The Sonics are also high on Williams, especially after losing their best rebounder, Reggie Evans, last February. With that pick the Hawks could get another forward and then take a point guard or combo guard -- UConn's Marcus Williams, Kentucky's Rajon Rondo or Villanova's Randy Foye -- at No. 10.

Minnesota Timberwolves - The Wolves have what it takes to get the No. 1 pick in the draft this summer. All they have to do is say that Kevin Garnett is yours and they get No. 1. But team president Kevin McHale says that he's not trading Garnett and that no one at the top of the draft is worth Garnett. However ... if the Raptors were to throw Charlie Villanueva into the deal and perhaps Mike James in a sign-and-trade, it might get more interesting. The Wolves can get better offers, though. The Bulls and Warriors both have more assets than Toronto, if the Wolves want to deal. Right now it appears that they don't. More likely, the team moves Marko Jaric and perhaps Ricky Davis to the Nuggets for Kenyon Martin.

Boston Celtics - The team doesn't have an acute need for the No. 7 pick, because it's unlikely the Celts can draft anyone there who can help immediately. Rather, they need veterans in the backcourt and in the middle who can help Paul Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak now. But unless the Celtics can get a future pick (2007 first-round picks are highly valued right now), it appears unlikely Boston will trade its pick. The alternative is trading Pierce, which the Celtics say they're not doing.

Houston Rockets - The Rockets have made attempts to move up in the draft. Morrison, with a healthy Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, would help make the Rockets instant contenders. The problem is that since the McGrady trade the Rockets have had few assets to offer in a trade. Stromile Swift and Luther Head are possibilities, but neither player's trade value is that high at the moment. More likely, the Rockets to try to trade down or out of the draft in exchange for a veteran. The Rockets are in "win now" mode. With the exception of J. J. Redick, it's unclear anyone on the board can help them at No. 8.

Golden State Warriors - They are one of the most active teams in trade talks at the moment. The team they put together didn't gel, and the Warriors need to make some serious changes. It appears that Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy and the No. 9 are the assets they're lookingto move. However, considering the big contracts of Dunleavy and Murphy, they may have to include a young prospect like Andris Biedrins or Mickael Pietrus. One rumored deal has the Warriors swapping Dunleavy, Murphy and the No. 9 pick to the Lakers for Lamar Odom and Aaron McKie.
Another has the Warriors sending Pietrus, Murphy and the No. 9 to the Bulls for Tyson Chandler and the No. 16. Utah could be another trading partner. A deal that would send Pietrus and Murphy to Utah for Carlos Boozer has been rumored since February.

Orlando Magic - The team has been trying to move up in the draft to get Brandon Roy. But it appears they need to convince a team to take a combo of Hedo Turkoglu and the No. 11 pick, and they've been striking out. Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson and Darko Milicic are untouchable right now.

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets - The Hornets have been trying to pair their two picks (No. 12 and No. 15), along with J. R. Smith, to move up high in the draft. There was speculation that Charlotte (No. 3)might be the trade partner, but that has been shot down by the Bobcats. Another possibility might be the Rockets' No. 8 pick, though that offer sounds a little high just to move up a few spots. But the move could get them Patrick O'Bryant, the big man they're after. The Rockets need assets right now and might be willing to throw in Stromile Swift to make a deal.

Philadelphia 76ers - We expect them to be among the most active teams this summer. Iverson is finally on the block. So are Chris Webber and Samuel Dalembert. The problem is that all three have terrible contracts, making it difficult for Billy King to do a good deal with anyone other than the Knicks. A deal with Atlanta may be a possibility for Iverson. San Antonio has some interest in Samuel Dalembert. Moving Webber? Good luck.

Utah Jazz - The Jazz have been trying to package Boozer in a trade that gets them up into the top 10, with the goal of getting Brandon Roy or Randy Foye. But no one's biting. One possibility might to be to package a future first-round pick (their own or the future Knicks pick owned by the Jazz) to Seattle for the No. 10. The word is that the Sonics are trying to keep costs under control right now so that they can sign Chris Wilcox. Still, it's unclear whether Foye would be on the board at No. 10. Other interesting trade scenarios have cropped up for the Jazz. In particular, the Warriors, Lakers and Bucks have shown interest in Boozer. The Bucks might be willing to part with Jamaal Magloire and Mo Williams in return for Boozer. That would be an intriguing deal for the Jazz, who could address their needs in the frontcourt and the backcourt in one fell swoop. The Lakers deal would probably have to be a three-way trade: Boozer and the No. 14 going to L.A., with Odom ending up at another destination. Odom wouldn't be a great fit for Utah, but he could be the player to get them the two guard they want.

Indiana Pacers - The Pacers are unhappy with how their team responded last season and have had conversations about blowing it up. That means Jermaine O'Neal, for the first time in his Pacers career, is not untouchable. While rumors of a swap with the Raptors appear bogus, at least two teams might be willing to give the Pacers what they want for O'Neal: a high draft pick, a young prospect and salary cap room for the summer of 2007. The Bulls have a number of ways to make that scenario work. For instance, they could swap the No. 2 and Ben Gordon or Luol Deng for O'Neal because they are under the salary cap. The Hawks could offer a similar deal of the No. 5, Marvin Williams or Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia for O'Neal.

Denver Nuggets - The Nuggets are interested in trading Kenyon Martin (to the Knicks or Timberwolves) and Andre Miller (to the Celtics) to clear cap space or move up in the draft. There's also been talk of Marcus Camby going to the Bulls in exchange for Tyson Chandler and the No. 16.

Miami Heat - The Heat are trying to use Dorell Wright to move up in the draft to get their hands on a Pat Riley favorite -- Guillermo Diaz.

Phoenix Suns - They've been trying to package the No. 21 and No. 27 picks to move up. Their target is presumably a big man like Mouhamed Saer Sene or Hilton Armstrong, though Rajon Rondo and Sergio Rodriguez are also high on their list. The Suns are also willing to do a bigger deal if they can get into the top 3. Leandro Barbosa can be had. The Suns love him, but aren't sure they can afford to re-sign him next summer. Shawn Marion is a long shot -- a team would have to offer a great player and a high pick to get him.

New Jersey Nets - The Nets would love to be able to package the No. 22 and No. 23 picks to move up and get an athletic big. Another option would be to package Antoine Wright and Zoran Planinic with one of their picks to move up. As for the rumors that Richard Jefferson is on the block, I'm told they're bogus.

New York Knicks - Knicks president Isiah Thomas had just about everyone on the trading block along with the No. 20 and No. 29 picks. However, unless Channing Frye is included in the deal (he won't be according to a Knicks source), they're probably not moving up significantly in the draft.

Memphis Grizzlies - After another first-round playoff exit, the Grizzlies are back at the drawing board. They desperately need a point guard and are still paper thin in the middle. I've heard that just about anyone on the roster, other than Pau Gasol, is available. The Grizzlies have been trying to move up to get Adam Morrison. While he doesn't currently fit a need, maybe Jerry West has something else going on.

Los Angeles Lakers - The Lakers have been shopping Andrew Bynum and Chris Mihm. Lamar Odom can be had, too, but the price is significantly higher. Their target in the draft? Brandon Roy.

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