Wednesday, March 22, 2006


Love this picture from the Pitt-Bradley game...

Sweet 16 redux:

Duke vs. LSU – Shelden Williams is playing out of his head…the 6’9” 260 lb. Williams matches up well with the 6’8” 310 lb. LSU’s Glen “Big Baby” Davis…Williams is an excellent shot blocker with great timing and long arms, and he’s also an underrated post scorer, however in this matchup Davis is the better athlete with tremendous hands and great footwork…Davis problem is a common one for oversized big men in that he sometimes forgets to use his advantage and tries to face up and get too cute with dribble drives…Davis needs to be “diesel” and use his size and terrific spin moves to work the post hard and get Williams in fouls trouble…JJ. Redick is really a shooting guard, but Duke starts Sean Dockery in that spot for defensive purposes…the matchup of the 6’7” Tasmin Mitchell on the 6’4” Redick will be a good one to watch…Mitchell is quick and long and plenty strong enough to get around on screens…and don’t forget that Redick gets Alligator Arms in the Sweet 16, proven by the loss against Michigan State last year where Redick was just 4-for-14 from the floor after being harrased all game by the taller, longer, more athletic Maurice Ager….Tyrus Thomas should dominate Josh McRoberts…Darrel Mitchell is the senior PG for LSU and will have his hands full being guarded by Dockery…overall LSU is a much better rebounding team, while Duke is a better shooting team…LSU has the deeper bench, but only because I just don’t trust DeMarcus Nelson to make a shot and Lee Melchioni, who can make a shot, will be severely outclassed athletically by everybody but the ballboys for LSU…OK…LSU wins 81-78…

West Virginia vs. Texas West - Look at the discrepancy in total rebounds per game Texas 40.3 to West Virginia’s 28…the Mountaineers need to shoot a high percentage to keep the lack of ability on the glass from killing them…WV SG Mike Gansey might be the most underrated player in the NCAA averaging 16.8 PPG on 55.2% from the field and 42.9% from three, 5.8 RPG (leading the team at only 6’4”!!!)…the matchup between him and Daniel Gibson of Texas will decide the game…I’m lukewarm on WV C Kevin Pittsnoggle…LaMarcus Aldridge of Texas is a better player in every facet of the game except for three point shooting, although Aldrigde does not want to go out and chase Pittsnoggle shooting 3’s…the 1-3-1 defence of WV is so tough, but Texas has seen it before and have the size and quicks to beat it on the baseline…Kenton Paulino is the X factor for Texas, his ability to penetrate will be huge…Call it Texas over WVU 84-74 as the Mountaineers tire in the 2nd half and the threes stop falling…however, this mone makes me very nervous…

Memphis vs. Bradley – Memphis is too athletic, too fast, too talented…Bradley is just happy to be there…Braves SF Marcellus Sommerville will find the cutting and dribbling lanes a lot tougher against Memphis’ much better athletes…Patrick O’Bryant has been great, Memphis needs to get him in foul trouble in order to make it an easier game…Memphis does not shoot well from the floor as a team, while Bradley shoots a very high percentage, mostly because of the size of O’Bryant…the Braves have no answer for Memphis freshman sensation Shawne Williams…Call it Memphis 87, Bradley 61…in a walk.

Gonzaga vs. UCLA - I don’t trust UCLA anymore…not after they missed 7 of 9 free-throw attempts down the stretch, but escaped 10th-seeded Alabama 62-59 in the 2nd round…Gonzaga was always touch and go, but they showed something beating a tough Indiana team by 10 in a game where Adam “Porn Stash” Morrison goes 5-17 from the floor…UCLA’s guards Farmar and Afflalo play very well together, but don’t use their athleticism to enforce tempo on offence…instead UCLA is a slow down defensive team, which is weird considering the athletes they have…Gonzaga is the polar opposite, a run and gun team with average athletes that plays no defence…Zags PF JP Batista is a very complete player who’s averaging 19.3 PPG and 9.4 RPG and shooting 59.4% from the field…he dominated Indiana’s Marco Killingsworth (who was only the best post player in the Big Ten)…I’m going to go with Gonzaga who sucks the young Bruins into their uptempo style and then beats them because teams that play out of character always lose…Call it Gonzaga 92, UCLA 80.

UConn vs. Washington - On paper this should be a blowout, UConn is the better team in every relevant category…Washington guard Brandon Roy is such a complete player averaging 20.2 PPG on 51.7% from the field, 81.4% from the line and 40.0% from three, 5.7 RPG, 4.1 APG and at around 6’5” and 200 lbs. he will be a terrific player in the NBA…UConn SG Denham Brown will draw the assignment of guarding Roy, whom he only has to contain, because if Roy gets his average, UConn still wins by 20…Washington SF Bobby Jones is a terrific defender but will have his hands full with UConn’s Rudy Gay who is simply the best overall athlete in the NCAA…Washington’s front line cannot compete with the 6’11’ Hilton Armstrong and the 6’10” Josh Boone of UConn and for all of Roy’s brilliance, UConn has Rashad Anderson coming off the bench to stroke the three and averaging 13…Call it UConn 91, Washington 70.

George Mason vs. Wichita State - Oh boy…this will be the best game of the Sweet 16…George Mason is tough…the epitome of tough…and they beat Wichita St. 70-67 on Tony Skinn's 3-pointer with 10.8 seconds left on Feb. 18…Patriots forward Jai Lewis, at 6’7” and 270 lbs. is one of those Lonny Baxter or Marcus Fizer type players who excel in college although he was a non-factor in the win over North Carolina…Lamar Butler and Folarin Campbell had great games against UNC dominating their slow little guards Wes Miller and Bobby Frasor, however, Wichita St. guards Sean Ogirri and P.J. Couisnard who went 4-for-17 in the Feb 18th matchup (their worst combined game of the season) will be motivated and confident…especially Couisnard (who my dad calls Cuisinart) who had a marvellous game against Tennessee going 6-7 from the floor including 4-4 from three for 20 points…and Shockers C Paul Miller went 1-9 against Tennesse and they still won the game, expect him to bounce back as well…it will be a squeaker, but I call it Wichita State 86, George Mason 85 in overtime…

Villanova vs. Boston College – Let me start by saying I’m on the Villanova bandwagon… BC just doesn't have the ball-handling to get by Villanova’s press…it’s Villanova’s guards vs. BC’s forwards basically and the thing that tips it in Villanova’s favour is that even though the starting 5 is undersized with the 4 guard lineup, the teams are even in rebounding average…Foy and Ray are really tremendous ball handlers and penetrators, while keeping you honest from three…but the real advantage is that with 4 guards on the floor when you include Lowry and Nardi the defensive pressure and quickness to the ball and in the passing lanes is incredibly disruptive to the other team’s offence and for a slower post up team like BC that’s going to be trouble…Call it Villanova 74, BC 61…

Florida vs. Georgetown – Terrific matchup of Georgetown’s size and the “Princeton” offence and Florida’s speed, athleticism and quickness…Gators C Joakim Noah has been awesome averaging 16.5 points on 58% from the floor and 79% from the line, 7.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 2.5 steals and 4.5 blocks a game in the tournament…the Gators are not getting much from Taurean Green though and they need him and Corey Brewer to be able to hit threes to open up the middle a bit against the Hoyas huge interior defence…Georgetown’s has very balanced scoring and runs the Princeton offence very well, with quick backcuts and crisp ball movement…Hoyas 7’2” 283 lb. C Roy Hibbert has come along way this year and has really developed into a force inside…I think the game will be low scoring and very close, but that the speed of Florida will win out…Call it Florida 70, Georgetown 68.

Roy Williams, who led North Carolina to a 23-8 record despite losing all five starters from the 2005 national championship team, was named coach of the year Tuesday by the United States Basketball Writers Association.

I saw a great NIT game the other night with Michigan beating Notre Dame 87-84 in double overtime on a ridiculous catch and shoot three pointer by Dion Harris…terrific game in which Notre Dame PG Chris Quinn scored the tying basket in regulation and the 1st overtime but missed the back end of a 1 and 1 that would have give Notre Dame the lead…

And speaking of the NIT, you MUST see Isaih Swann’s dunk from the Florida State-South Carolina game…dude is only 6’1” and on the break he does a two foot, one-handed leaning statue of liberty right over the defender from outside the key…it’s ridiculous…

You want to know why low-seeded teams can pull early-round upsets but have a hard time getting to the Final Four? Right now, Duke, UConn, Villanova, Florida, Gonzaga, Memphis and Texas all feel like their tournament is just beginning. George Mason, Wichita State and Bradley feel like they've already won.

Rudy Gay of Connecticut, Adam Morrison of Gonzaga, J.J. Redick of Duke and Allan Ray of Villanova were chosen Tuesday as finalists for the Naismith Trophy as the top college basketball player in the country.

Memphis has the easiest draw to the Final Frour…they opened the tourney with No. 16 seed Oral Roberts, next was No. 9 Bucknell, next up is No. 13 Bradley, and if Memphis wins that and draws No. 3 Gonzaga could get to the Final Four having only played opponents from mid-major conferences…

Will Billy Packer eat crow after he mocked the Missouri Valley Conference's four bids to the NCAA now that Bradley and Wichita State, not to mention George Mason from the Patriot League are in the Sweet 16 and the Big 10 is 0 for life in this year’s tourney? Two years ago, Packer had trouble with giving a No. 1 seed to a one-loss St. Joseph's team. That same St. Joe's team came within one shot of making the Final Four.

1) From Chad Ford of ESPN.com, the latest draft report:

Draft watch: Who's hot, who's not

In the span of four days, the NCAA Tournament has moved from 64 teams down to 16. A number of the top prospects in the draft have led their teams to victory and, in a few cases, dramatically increased their draft stock in just a few games. Insider spoke with a number of NBA scouts and executives throughout the weekend to get a feel for which prospects helped or hurt themselves during the tournament's first two rounds. NBA scouts tend to keep their projections fairly steady (without dramatic shifts in either direction). But executives, especially GMs, tend to be more swayed by events like the tournament. Here's a look at who helped or hurt himself in the last four days:

Who's Hot?

Joakim Noah, F/C, Florida: Noah's stellar performance for Florida on Saturday against UW-Milwaukee had scouts and executives buzzing. Everyone knows that Noah is a great athlete with a great motor. On Saturday, Noah showed a number of skills -- passing, perimeter shot, ballhandling -- that haven't been in abundant display all season. Coach Billy Donovan put Noah at small forward during one series of plays, and he broke his man down off the dribble, delivered a no-look pass on the break and swished an outside jumper. While Noah is still a work in progress, both physically and as a basketball player, we've moved him up to No. 6 on the Big Board and the Top 100. We've actually had him going as high as No. 4 to Atlanta in our Lottery + Mock Draft for the past two weeks. It's no longer out of the question that Noah could be a dark-horse candidate for the No. 1 pick in the draft. If Florida continues to dominate (the Gators have looked as impressive as any team in the tournament in the the first two rounds), and if Noah helps lead them to the Final Four, he'll get consideration from teams, such as the Hawks, that are in the market for the combination of size, athleticism and skills that he can deliver.

Brandon Roy, SG, Washington: After a slow start, Roy's been on fire the last two months of the season. He continued his hot streak in the tournament with two outstanding games in which he did just about everything you could ask from a player: He controlled the tempo of the game, scored both inside and outside, and played great defense. Roy is not the most exciting player in the draft. He lacks the jaw-dropping athleticism and the flair for the dramatic that some of the other top prospects possess. But is there a more complete guard in the draft? Villanova's Randy Foye is the only other player who really could be in the conversation. Based on the feedback we've gotten from NBA teams over the past few weeks, we've moved Roy past Arkansas' Ronnie Brewer on our boards and currently have him ranked as the seventh-best prospect in the draft.
Considering that Roy began the season as a second-rounder, that's amazing. If he can help Washington pull an upset over Connecticut this weekend, we might have to move him up another spot or two.

Patrick O'Bryant, C, Bradley: O'Bryant was suspended for the first eight games of the season for getting paid for work he allegedly didn't do in the previous summer. He came back with a bang in his first three games, averaging 16.6 ppg, 13 rpg and 3.5 bpg, and scouts began declaring him the best center prospect in the draft. However, after those three games, he was up and down most of the season and looked like he was at least one year away from the draft. He's had another coming-out party in the tournament, holding his own against a very talented and athletic Kansas front line and then outplaying Pittsburgh's Aaron Gray, a player many people projected as a potential first-round pick. O'Bryant's 10 rebounds against Kansas and 28 points and seven rebounds against Pittsburgh have put him back on the first-round radar screen. Scouts were especially impressed at how O'Bryant handled the more physical Gray on Sunday. While O'Bryant is still very much a project, his length, athleticism and big-game production in the tournament could land him in the late lottery if he can produce another big game against top-seeded Memphis on Thursday.

Josh McRoberts, PF, Duke: McRoberts was widely hailed as the top freshman in the country at the start of the season. Given the play of North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough, it's hard to argue McRoberts deserves that distinction now. But McRoberts has more NBA upside than Hansbrough, and after an up-and-down freshman season, McRoberts has come alive the last month of the season. His streak of solid play has extended into the tournament with an impressive 14-point, 13-rebound performance against George Washington (true, GW's Pops Mensah-Bonsu wasn't 100 percent). That type of play in the tournament was exactly what ignited Marvin Williams' rise last season. If McRoberts can continue to contribute to a Duke run deep into the tournament, he'll get consideration as a top-10 pick. To move into the top five, he would need another year at Duke, according to scouts, so he could be the lead man (without J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams).

Marcus Williams, PG, UConn: If you were a casual basketball watcher, knew nothing of the hype Rudy Gay has gotten from scouts and the Internet, and sat down and watched a UConn game, who would you say was the best player on the team? It's been pretty clear the last two games that Williams is. He is averaging 20 points and eight assists, with a 5-of-8 mark from 3-point range and just four turnovers in the tournament. Gay is bigger and more athletic and has all the upside in the world, but when the game is on the line, the ball is in Williams' hands -- and he's delivered. Williams is the best pure point guard in the nation, and he's proven that he also can put the ball in the basket when the offense stalls. And he repeatedly showed on Sunday that he has the quickness to get by Rajon Rondo. Considering that Rondo is considered more athletic and quicker -- in fact, one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball -- that says something about Williams. A couple of scouts compared him favorably to Deron Williams and Andre Miller. Based on how he outplayed Rondo on Sunday (though Rondo played pretty well), we've now ranked Williams as the top point guard in the draft.

Honorable Mention: Randy Foye, PG/SG, Villanova; Shelden Williams, PF, Duke; Ronald Steele, PG, Alabama; Corey Brewer, SG/SF, Florida; Maurice Ager, SG, Michigan State; J.J. Redick, SG, Duke; Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga; Tyler Hansbrough, PF, North Carolina; Al Horford, PF, Florida; Marcelus Kemp, SG, Nevada; Robert Vaden, SG/SF, Indiana; Mustafa Shakur, PG, Arizona; Christian Maraker, C, Pacific

Who's Not?

Gerry McNamara, PG/SG, Syracuse: He was pretty amazing in the Big East tournament, leading a couple of NBA scouts to question whether they had him ranked too low. But any second thoughts about McNamara's status as a second-rounder at best in this year's draft disappeared after his terrible first-round performance against Texas A&M. McNamara didn't make a shot from the field and had as many turnovers as he did assists. Syracuse wouldn't have made it to the Big Dance without McNamara, but the Orange also got tripped up in the first round because of him.

Brandon Rush, SF, Kansas: The Big 12 freshman of the year has been strong this season, but his first-round play against Bradley was ugly (as was his team's). Rush, who has been a steady force for the Jayhawks, went 4-of-14 from the field and never got to the line in KU's loss. Rush has proven this season that he's a legit NBA prospect. But he needs to spend at least one more year in Lawrence before thinking about the NBA draft. This goes for the entire KU squad.

Dee Brown, PG, Illinois: We all love what Dee Brown is made of. He's tough, he's a leader and he plays with great heart. But his shooting stroke and shot selection have been so awful this year that scouts have soured. His shooting woes extended to the tournament, where he went 6-of-25 from the field in two games. If he still wants to be a first-round pick, he'd better hit every shot he takes in NBA workouts.

Shannon Brown, SG, Michigan State: Brown has been steadily moving up our board all season and looked poised to crack the first round if he continued his strong play into the tournament. He didn't. Brown was awful for the Spartans in the first round, shooting just 2-of-11 (for a total of 10-of-41 in his last three games). For a guy who was a borderline first-round pick anyway, it wasn't the impression he wanted to make on NBA scouts. As for MSU's Paul Davis, his lackluster play in the first round didn't help his stock, either.

Joseph Jones, PF, Texas A&M: Jones was considering declaring for the draft after a strong sophomore season for the Aggies. But his 6-of-21 performance in the tournament along with his struggles against the more athletic LSU big men hurt him tremendously. He needs to go back to Texas A&M in great shape next season and develop some consistency.

2) Elliott Kalb of FOXSports.com with a great list

These NCAA records will never be broken

The NCAA men's basketball tournament has provided some of the greatest moments in sports since its inception in 1939. Along the way, there have been players and teams that have set records that will never be broken.

1. UCLA's 38-game winning streak. John Wooden's UCLA Bruins won seven consecutive national championships, finally losing to North Carolina State in double overtime in the 1974 Final Four. How amazing is this streak? Consider this. In the past four years, there have been four different national champions. Eight different schools made the national championship game. And 15 different schools have made the Final Four. Only Kansas (2002 and 2003) made two Final Four appearances in the last four years. No one even gets halfway to UCLA's 38-game winning streak, because that would require more than three national championships in a row. Yes, the Bruins had advantages. In their run of seven championships, they played eight NCAA tournament games in Los Angeles. And Wooden's NCAA tournament record of 47-10 is aided by superstars Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (12-0) and Bill Walton (11-1). But the Wizard of Westwood won a lot of games in the NCAAs without either.

2. Kareem Abdul Jabbar was named Most Outstanding Player at the Final Four three consecutive years. Actually, he was known as Lew Alcindor at the time, but the point is this: What sophomore who wins the national championship and is selected the Most Outstanding Player going to stick in school for two more seasons these days? No one leaves that much money on the table.

3. No NCAA Tournament game will match the 24.1 television rating of the 1979 championship game between Indiana State and Michigan State.
Last year, the North Carolina-Illinois matchup was fairly compelling. The Tar Heels were a familiar team with national appeal. And the game did a 15.0 rating. Contrast that with North Carolina's national championship game in 1992, when it was watched by 22.2% of the country. It's impossible to get those numbers anymore for a college basketball game. Hey, earlier this year college football fans had a chance to see the Texas Longhorns defeat the defending champion USC Trojans 41-38. That game did a 21.7. And basketball will never match football ratings in the United States. In today's universe of vast choices, I don't see how the record rating set by Larry Bird and Magic Johnson can be topped.

4. The University of North Carolina, by spreading out their record 16 Final Four appearances, has had a record 135 players appear in the Final Four. You're not guaranteed a trip to the Final Four when you're recruited to play basketball by the Tar Heels — but it's not a bad bet. You could have played for Carolina in the 1950s and made the Final Four (like Lennie Rosenbluth). You could have played for Carolina in the 1960s and made it (like Charlie Scott). Phil Ford is one who made it in the 1970s. Michael Jordan and James Worthy made it in the 80s. George Lynch and Eric Montross in the 90s. Scott May and company in the 2000s.


5. 24 NCAA games. They don't play consolation games anymore. The most tournament games anyone can play — if they max out and get to the NCAA Championship game all four years — is 24. Laettner was a freshman with Duke in 1989, when he averaged 8.9 points and 4.7 rebounds. He became a force in the NCAA tournament, averaging 14.6 points in the 1989 NCAA Tournament. Duke advanced to the Final Four, where they lost to Seton Hall. Duke advanced to the Finals in 1990 (losing to UNLV). In Laettner's junior and senior seasons, the Blue Devils won consecutive national championships.

6. Duke's Mike Krzyzewski has an NCAA Tournament record of 66-18. That's more victories than John Wooden (whose teams didn't compete in 64-team fields) and more than Dean Smith and more than all but a handful of schools. Coach K is establishing a record that will take 25-30 years to break, if it's ever broken.

7. Austin Carr of Notre Dame holds a record that can never be broken. Most college basketball fans will assume it's a scoring record. Carr does hold the NCAA Tournament record for the highest scoring average in one year's NCAA tournament (52.7 points in three games in 1970) and for the highest scoring average in a career (41.3 points in seven NCAA tournament games). But I'm going to leave open the possibility that someone will come along and be an unstoppable scorer. But no one will approach Carr's five defeats in NCAA tournament play. That's correct, he was 2-5 in his NCAA tournament career with the Fighting Irish. Here's how. In 1968, Carr was a freshman and ineligible. In 1969, his team lost a first-round game to Miami of Ohio 63-60 in the Mideast Regional. In 1970, the 21-8 Notre Dame team won a first-round game against Ohio University (led by Carr's 61 points). They then lost a Mideast regional game to Kentucky by a score of 109-99. In that game, Austin Carr scored 52 points in a losing effort, mainly because Kentucky's Dan Issel scored 44 in the same game. Two days later, Notre Dame lost a Mideast Regional Consolation game to Iowa. In 1971, the Irish returned to the tournament. They defeated TCU in the first round. They lost to Drake in a Midwest Regional game, and to Houston in the Midwest Regional Consolation game. There were only a few years that consolation games were played (they haven't been played in more than 25 years). Very few players today lose four tournament games. Carr isn't the only player to lose five tournament games, but the most high profile (North Carolina lost a consolation game after reaching the Final Four in 1967, lost the Championship game in 1968, and lost a consolation game after reaching the Final Four in 1969; and so a Tar Heel from '66-'69 named Rusty Clark lost five tournament games as well).

8. The University of Kentucky blocked a record 48 shots in the 1998 NCAA Tournament, including 14 versus UCLA in a South Regional semifinal.
This is what happens when a college team comprised of the likes of Nazr Mohammed and Jamaal Magliore and Scott Padgett — all of whom became serviceable NBA players — swat away everything in sight.

9. Shaquille O'Neal blocked 11 shots in one tournament game. In a 1992 game against Brigham Young, Shaq blocked 11 shots. And no, Shawn Bradley was not on the BYU team that year. The year before, Bradley blocked 10 shots in a tournament game.

10. Elvin Hayes had 98 rebounds in the 1968 NCAA tournament (five games). Players just don't get 20 rebounds in college basketball games anymore. Wake Forest great Tim Duncan had 22 in two different tournament games. No one has had more than that in one game in nearly 30 years. No one — not even Duncan — has averaged as many as 15 boards in a tournament since Phil Hubbard in 1977.

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