Well, as the tournament continues, here’s how I see the next round shaking out:
Thursday, March 22
West
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 So. Illinois 7:10 p.m.
The Jayhawks have now won 13 in a row…they hit 60.5 percent of their threes (23 of 38) against Niagara and Kentucky in the first two rounds…they are long, fast, athletic and have multiple scorers, however they only shoot 66% from the free throw line…the Salukis are the best defensive team in the nation…they held Holy Cross and Virginia Tech to an average of 49.5 points in the first two rounds…however, if Jamaal Tatum has an off shooting game, SIU suffers, as he is their only perimeter scorer…it’s a matchup of offence vs. defence on paper, but in fact the Jayhawks play pretty good D themselves and will limit the Salukis scoring opportunities just enough…I see it KU 68, SIU 61
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 Pitt 9:40 p.m.
UCLA is a terrific defensive team, especially closing out on shooters, evidenced by their holding Indiana to 13 1st half points…however, their scoring has been spotty, they are poor foul shooters (66%) and they have no player taller than 6’9”…Pitt is big, tough and balanced…centre Aaron Gray is 7 feet and 280 lbs. and should dominate the smaller Bruins…they love to pass, having led the Big East in assists…however, they are prone to blowing big leads (a 19 point lead blown in the 2nd round against VCU) and have a bit of a rep for not being up for big games…I see Pitt’s size and strength being the difference because both teams play essentially at the same tempo…Pitt 74, UCLA 71
South
No. 2 Memphis vs. No. 3 Texas A&M 7:27 p.m.
The Tigers are very deep and very talented and were not challenged in the first two rounds by North Texas and Nevada…they play fast, defend hard and aver very fast and athletic…they are not good decision makers at the PG spot and often caught late in the shot clock wondering what to do…their go to player, SG Chris Douglas-Roberts has a sprained ankle…Aggies PG Acie Law is the New-Jack Sam Cassell, with the skills and the nuts to take and make any shot when it counts…plus playing in San Antonio (only three hours from College Station) will be a home game for them…I see a close game, but the long arm of the Law takes over in the final minutes…make it Texas A & M 81, Memphis 79
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Tennessee 9:57 p.m.
The Buckeye’s are big (Oden) and fast (Conley) but VERY vulnerable…if Ron Lewis does not make a ridiculous 25-foot three with a hand in his face, they lose to Xavier…Oden has not shown good decision making as a passer out of the double team…Thad Matta will have to make adjustments on offence in order to get good looks for his shooters, because Tennessee will pack it in on Oden…the Vols have one of the great shooters in the country in Chris Lofton, who has in-the-gym range…Vols are small, with former PG Dane Bradshaw (6’4”) playing the 4 spot in some sets…I see Ohio State being a little too big and too talented…call it Ohio State 79, Tennessee 73
Friday, March 23
Midwest
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 5 Butler 7:10 p.m.
The Gators, the reigning NCAA champs, have looked a little disinterested so far, especially centre Joakim Noah, who has been very ineffective through the first two rounds…however, this team has 3 guys who will be 1st round draft picks (Noah, Horford, Brewer) and 2 other starters who will play in the NBA (Green and Humphrey) so there is talent to burn…However, the Gators have put themselves in a 1st half hole twice in the tourney going 14-of-31 from the field in the first half against Jackson State and 8-of-22 (36.4 percent) and trailing 31-29 to Purdue at the break…the Bulldogs are right out of Hoosier’ central casting, in fact their home gym, the Winkle Fieldhouse, was in the actual movie…No active player stands taller than 6-foot-7, and PG Graves, their best player generously listed at 6-1 and 155 pounds…the advantage Butler has is that they execute better than any team in the nation…they commit the nation's fewest turnovers at 9.5/game, rank 7TH in free-throw shooting at 76%, 5th in scoring defence at 56.9 points per game allowed and 17th in threes with 9/game…however, Butler does not play anyone over 6’7”, so I think Florida’s size and speed will overwhelm them…Florida 78, Butler 72
No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 7 UNLV 9:40 p.m.
The Ducks have great guards including the most clutch player in all of college basketball in guard Aaron Brooks who has scored the game-winning or tying points in the final minute or in overtime six times this season and little (5’6”) TaJuan Porter who had 61 points in 3 games of the PAC-10 tournament and was named MVP…they have 2 other G/F’s that can score in Bryce Taylor and Malik Hairston…the 4 guard offence means they attack off the dribble constantly, run the floor with abandon, all while taking very good care of the ball (12.6 turnovers/game)…the Rebels have the psychic connection of the father-son coach-PG connection with Lon Kruger and his kid Kevin Kruger…athletic wings Wendell White and Wink Adams play in your pocket D and are always get the ball in good scoring position from Kruger…So it’s UNLV’s D vs. Oregon’s O…I think that UNLV, who is the much hotter team (they’ve won 9 of their last 10) takes it…UNLV 83, Oregon 77
East
No. 2 Georgetown vs. No. 6 Vanderbilt 7:27 p.m.
Georgetown is white hot having won 17 of its last 18 heading…the Hoyas also beat Vandy 86-70 earlier this season…for G-town it’s all about ball control, rebounding and defence…oh and centre Roy Hibbert who is a 7’2” shot blocker supreme…and SF Jeff Green who is a Scottie Pippen-esque player and a winner who can do everything and anything it takes to win…Vandy has Derrick Byars and Shan Foster (both top 10 in the SEC in scoring) who both lit up Florida earlier in the year…however, the Commodores do not rebound well, which is what Georgetown does better than anyone else…I think it’s a blowout…call it Georgetown 78, Vanderbilt 54
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 5 USC 9:57 p.m.
North Carolina runs the devastating secondary break and is the best team in the nation at capitalizing on turnovers, with lightning quick guard Ty Lawson running the secondary break (sometimes by himself) to perfection…Tyler Hansborough had a monster game against Michigan State last round with 33 points and 16 rebounds and Rayshawn Terry and Julian Wright give the Heels lots of length inside…so they’re fast and long…the Trojans are very balanced with scoring and defence coming in equal parts from PG Gabe Pruitt, SG Nick Young and PF Taj Gibson…they play terrific defence, having let Texas phenow Kevin Durant do his thing, but shacking the rest of the Longhorns in a 87-68 drubbing in the last round…so is that what they do here? I think so…here’s your upset with USC 80, UNC 79…
I’ll preview the Elite 8 on Saturday…
Here’s a bunch of interesting articles I found about how coaches make themselves more money by having good tournaments:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/19/sports/19vandy.html?_r=1&em&ex=1174449600&en=6aa7d8854a12c617&ei=5087%0A&oref=slogin
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/tourney07/2007-03-20-coaches-incentives_N.htm
http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/10071660
http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/6591198
Thursday, March 22
West
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 So. Illinois 7:10 p.m.
The Jayhawks have now won 13 in a row…they hit 60.5 percent of their threes (23 of 38) against Niagara and Kentucky in the first two rounds…they are long, fast, athletic and have multiple scorers, however they only shoot 66% from the free throw line…the Salukis are the best defensive team in the nation…they held Holy Cross and Virginia Tech to an average of 49.5 points in the first two rounds…however, if Jamaal Tatum has an off shooting game, SIU suffers, as he is their only perimeter scorer…it’s a matchup of offence vs. defence on paper, but in fact the Jayhawks play pretty good D themselves and will limit the Salukis scoring opportunities just enough…I see it KU 68, SIU 61
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 Pitt 9:40 p.m.
UCLA is a terrific defensive team, especially closing out on shooters, evidenced by their holding Indiana to 13 1st half points…however, their scoring has been spotty, they are poor foul shooters (66%) and they have no player taller than 6’9”…Pitt is big, tough and balanced…centre Aaron Gray is 7 feet and 280 lbs. and should dominate the smaller Bruins…they love to pass, having led the Big East in assists…however, they are prone to blowing big leads (a 19 point lead blown in the 2nd round against VCU) and have a bit of a rep for not being up for big games…I see Pitt’s size and strength being the difference because both teams play essentially at the same tempo…Pitt 74, UCLA 71
South
No. 2 Memphis vs. No. 3 Texas A&M 7:27 p.m.
The Tigers are very deep and very talented and were not challenged in the first two rounds by North Texas and Nevada…they play fast, defend hard and aver very fast and athletic…they are not good decision makers at the PG spot and often caught late in the shot clock wondering what to do…their go to player, SG Chris Douglas-Roberts has a sprained ankle…Aggies PG Acie Law is the New-Jack Sam Cassell, with the skills and the nuts to take and make any shot when it counts…plus playing in San Antonio (only three hours from College Station) will be a home game for them…I see a close game, but the long arm of the Law takes over in the final minutes…make it Texas A & M 81, Memphis 79
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Tennessee 9:57 p.m.
The Buckeye’s are big (Oden) and fast (Conley) but VERY vulnerable…if Ron Lewis does not make a ridiculous 25-foot three with a hand in his face, they lose to Xavier…Oden has not shown good decision making as a passer out of the double team…Thad Matta will have to make adjustments on offence in order to get good looks for his shooters, because Tennessee will pack it in on Oden…the Vols have one of the great shooters in the country in Chris Lofton, who has in-the-gym range…Vols are small, with former PG Dane Bradshaw (6’4”) playing the 4 spot in some sets…I see Ohio State being a little too big and too talented…call it Ohio State 79, Tennessee 73
Friday, March 23
Midwest
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 5 Butler 7:10 p.m.
The Gators, the reigning NCAA champs, have looked a little disinterested so far, especially centre Joakim Noah, who has been very ineffective through the first two rounds…however, this team has 3 guys who will be 1st round draft picks (Noah, Horford, Brewer) and 2 other starters who will play in the NBA (Green and Humphrey) so there is talent to burn…However, the Gators have put themselves in a 1st half hole twice in the tourney going 14-of-31 from the field in the first half against Jackson State and 8-of-22 (36.4 percent) and trailing 31-29 to Purdue at the break…the Bulldogs are right out of Hoosier’ central casting, in fact their home gym, the Winkle Fieldhouse, was in the actual movie…No active player stands taller than 6-foot-7, and PG Graves, their best player generously listed at 6-1 and 155 pounds…the advantage Butler has is that they execute better than any team in the nation…they commit the nation's fewest turnovers at 9.5/game, rank 7TH in free-throw shooting at 76%, 5th in scoring defence at 56.9 points per game allowed and 17th in threes with 9/game…however, Butler does not play anyone over 6’7”, so I think Florida’s size and speed will overwhelm them…Florida 78, Butler 72
No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 7 UNLV 9:40 p.m.
The Ducks have great guards including the most clutch player in all of college basketball in guard Aaron Brooks who has scored the game-winning or tying points in the final minute or in overtime six times this season and little (5’6”) TaJuan Porter who had 61 points in 3 games of the PAC-10 tournament and was named MVP…they have 2 other G/F’s that can score in Bryce Taylor and Malik Hairston…the 4 guard offence means they attack off the dribble constantly, run the floor with abandon, all while taking very good care of the ball (12.6 turnovers/game)…the Rebels have the psychic connection of the father-son coach-PG connection with Lon Kruger and his kid Kevin Kruger…athletic wings Wendell White and Wink Adams play in your pocket D and are always get the ball in good scoring position from Kruger…So it’s UNLV’s D vs. Oregon’s O…I think that UNLV, who is the much hotter team (they’ve won 9 of their last 10) takes it…UNLV 83, Oregon 77
East
No. 2 Georgetown vs. No. 6 Vanderbilt 7:27 p.m.
Georgetown is white hot having won 17 of its last 18 heading…the Hoyas also beat Vandy 86-70 earlier this season…for G-town it’s all about ball control, rebounding and defence…oh and centre Roy Hibbert who is a 7’2” shot blocker supreme…and SF Jeff Green who is a Scottie Pippen-esque player and a winner who can do everything and anything it takes to win…Vandy has Derrick Byars and Shan Foster (both top 10 in the SEC in scoring) who both lit up Florida earlier in the year…however, the Commodores do not rebound well, which is what Georgetown does better than anyone else…I think it’s a blowout…call it Georgetown 78, Vanderbilt 54
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 5 USC 9:57 p.m.
North Carolina runs the devastating secondary break and is the best team in the nation at capitalizing on turnovers, with lightning quick guard Ty Lawson running the secondary break (sometimes by himself) to perfection…Tyler Hansborough had a monster game against Michigan State last round with 33 points and 16 rebounds and Rayshawn Terry and Julian Wright give the Heels lots of length inside…so they’re fast and long…the Trojans are very balanced with scoring and defence coming in equal parts from PG Gabe Pruitt, SG Nick Young and PF Taj Gibson…they play terrific defence, having let Texas phenow Kevin Durant do his thing, but shacking the rest of the Longhorns in a 87-68 drubbing in the last round…so is that what they do here? I think so…here’s your upset with USC 80, UNC 79…
I’ll preview the Elite 8 on Saturday…
Here’s a bunch of interesting articles I found about how coaches make themselves more money by having good tournaments:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/19/sports/19vandy.html?_r=1&em&ex=1174449600&en=6aa7d8854a12c617&ei=5087%0A&oref=slogin
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/tourney07/2007-03-20-coaches-incentives_N.htm
http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/10071660
http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/6591198
posted by Cornback at
3:55 p.m.
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